Topics - NPSC

topics

The NATO Pipeline System Conference serves as a strategic platform for allied collaboration, bringing together subject-matter experts, decision-makers, and operational leaders. The sessions will address critical priorities for the NATO Pipeline System, focusing on enhancing resilience, interoperability, and operational readiness. Below are the twelve key topics that will shape our discussions, driving forward our collective mission to safeguard and optimize this vital infrastructure.

P1. Pipeline Network Resilience

Resilience is defined by a system’s ability to return to normal operations after an operationally disruptive incident. In pipeline operations, the recovery is measured in time to recovery and in sustained volumes at a given flow rate. The most likely scenarios involve the loss of pumping capacity, the loss of power from the local electrical grid, or the physical damage of a pipeline segment.

To increase responsiveness in crisis and in war, NATO pipelines must consider identifying critical nodes, the delineation of geographic support zones, the rapid deployment of mobile repair and recovery capability, and the appropriate positioning of such internal scarce mobile pumps, power generators, bypass kits and spares. More broadly, NPS pipeline operators must regularly assess the necessity and density of such mobile repair and recovery capability, its management, associated deployment and operating training requirements, the standardisation of its employment, and the long-term financial cost.

P2. Product Quality

The development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) supply chains is becoming increasingly critical to meeting global energy demands, with NATO pipelines playing being involved in this transition. As the need for efficient, reliable, and secure transportation of multiple fuel types grows, pipeline systems face significant technical challenges, particularly in the area of multi-product transport and maintaining product quality across diverse fuel types.

The industry’s drive for innovation in fuel testing and new technologies presents opportunities for pipelines to adapt and meet future demands. This section will explore the evolving role of NATO pipelines in SAF supply chains, examining both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, as well as the importance of product quality and technological advancements in ensuring the success of these systems.

P3. Uncrewed and Autonomous Systems

Autonomous vehicle and drone technology have been increasingly integrated into the management and monitoring of industrial bulk petroleum storage depots and pipelines, and its current and future uses are shaping the industry in several ways including inspection and monitoring, leak detection, surveillance and security, emergency response, and mapping and modelling.

Technologies supporting drone functionality are rapidly evolving. These technological advancements include high-resolution cameras, infrared and thermal imaging, ultrasonic and light detection and ranging (LIDAR), artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT) system integration, drone swarm architecture, and extended battery life for greater autonomy. The use of drone technology in the energy sector is transforming inspection, monitoring, and emergency response capabilities.

With continuous technological advancements, drones are expected to take on even more autonomous and intelligent roles, making operations more efficient, responsive, safe, and environmentally responsible. NATO pipelines and their associated bulk fuel facilities are in the initial phase of exploring this capability to improve the operational readiness and resilience while also focusing on efficiency, effectiveness, and responsiveness.

P4. Cybersecurity and Cyber Resilience

In an era where digital transformation is not just an option but also a necessity, the importance of cybersecurity has never been more pronounced. This digital evolution, while offering unprecedented opportunities for growth and connectivity, also presents a landscape ripe for exploitation by cyber adversaries. The urgency of robust cybersecurity and cyber resilience in support of NATO energy security interests and corresponding critical energy infrastructure cannot be overstated.

The growing statistics and negative trends underline the critical need for a cybersecurity strategy specific to NPS networks. All current and future NPS networks should expect to be significantly challenged by cyber actors with different motives, affiliations, and activities at an increasing rate and intensity. Those cyber actors may include cybercriminals, hacktivists, state-sponsored actors, insiders, advanced persistent threats (APTs), and activist groups with very different tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs).

Considering an ever increasing convergence of IT and OT networks, the complexity of systems, the advent of quantum computing, the exponentially larger attack surface exposed to potential cyber adversaries NATO pipeline organisations need to rapidly evolve in order to identify, detect, protect, respond and recover from cyber incidents and mitigate disruptions to NATO CEI and related supply chains. This will require clear roles and responsibilities in responding to cyberattacks and an ability to rapidly and routinely share technology-driven solutions in the protection of IT and OT networks supporting NPS networks.

P5. Pipeline Maintenance and Pipeline Inspection Gauges (PIGs)

Petroleum pipeline pigging in support of maintenance activities is evolving due to several emerging trends and technological advancements aimed at improving pipeline integrity, safety, efficiency, and environmental sustainability.

Smart or intelligent pigs can collect detailed data on pipeline conditions such as corrosion, cracks, and deformations. In combination with software and the use of artificial intelligence, the collection of this data can lead to near real-time predictive maintenance and more accurate and faster integrity assessments.

In parallel, the development of autonomous and miniature pigs may enable solution to more complex pipeline configuration that conventional pigs cannot access at present and reduce the human interface in pigging handling operations. Pipeline pigging activities play a major role in the restoration and modernisation efforts of aging NATO pipelines.

Nations must consider many factors when planning pigging operations ranging from the synchronisation of pigging with operational activity, the frequency of pigging operations, the cost effectiveness of the procurement mechanism, and the NSIP eligibility of post-pigging restoration works.

P6. NATO Pipeline Dual-Use

Current NATO pipelines remain largely dedicated to military volumes with limited dual use in only two of nine existing pipelines. In order for NATO pipelines to be operationally ready and capable to meet the bulk fuel military demand in time of war, volumes much greater than current military requirements are necessary in peacetime.

Thus, high non-military volumes allow to:
– Operate and maintain network facilities and equipment,
– Recruit, retain, and train pipeline operations Subject Matter Experts (SMEs),
– Rotate stocks stored within the network, and
– Reduce national contribution(s) to the O&M costs.

Current and future national and multi-national operated NATO pipelines must consider expanding or developing their capability and capacity by connecting to military and commercial bulk fuel infrastructure at various entry and exit points (refineries, depots, seaports, rail loading stations, truck loading stations, military bases and commercial airports) and modernising current infrastructure to improve capacity to meet non-military peacetime demand. This potential increase in peacetime activity as a secondary line of effort may require for some nations a change in organisational structure better fit-for-purpose and dedicated to the integrated management of such military dual use pipeline.
This may also lead to the modification of national current policy, procedure, and resourcing related to existing or planned NPS networks.

P7. Energy Transition

The aviation sector is at a crossroads as it navigates a delicate transition from fossil fuels to more sustainable alternatives, primarily driven by increasing regulatory pressures, environmental considerations, and technological advancements. The evolution of fossil fuels and SAF in aviation will shape the industry’s future up to a carbon neutral goal set for 2050 and beyond.

Despite increasing global awareness and efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption, traditional jet fuel is expected to continue dominating the commercial and military aviation industry for at least the next two to three decades, albeit with declining shares. The global SAF market remains in its infancy, with current production only a fraction of total aviation fuel demand (less than 1% as of 2023). The main barriers include high production costs, limited feedstock availability, and the need for policy incentives to spur investment. SAF products are poised to play a pivotal role in decarbonising the aviation sector. By 2050, SAF could account for up to 60-70% of the aviation fuel mix, with fossil fuels gradually phased out for most commercial applications.

Policy frameworks, such as carbon pricing, mandates, and subsidies, will play a key role in driving this transition, as will the willingness of airlines and passengers to pay a premium for ever-increasing but greener air travel. NATO Nations will adopt distinct paths to carbon neutrality through likely similar but different national energy portfolios. These will further include distinct national defence energy portfolios that will lag behind the commercial aviation market as military platforms will likely convert to new energy sources at a slower rate with a gradual sun-setting of legacy platforms introducing newer more energy efficient major combat and support systems. Thus, NATO pipeline systems must continue to ensure military requirements can be met while preserving the ability to have non-military demand continue to support modernisation efforts.

P8. Procurement in an International Environment

The procurement and acquisition respective national capabilities from each NATO Allied Nations vary drastically in scale, scope, capacity, responsiveness, and overall capability. Current and future National and multinational managed NPS networks may stand to benefit from having a multinational procurement or acquisition capability for a unique or common requirement.

Within NATO, the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) provides procurement and acquisition expertise for good and services. By aggregating demand, NSPA can make its military customers benefit from economies of scale, supply chain efficiencies, consistent quality, competitive contract terms, standardisation of requirements, greater transparency, and more integrated solutions. When and where appropriate, NSPA can satisfy a procurement or acquisition capability gap in support of current or new NPS Nations.

P9. NPS Reporting and Logistics Planning

All NATO nations have agreed on the necessity to collect and provide accurate information on their respective military and civil pipeline systems, bulk fuel facilities and related capabilities. This is currently performed through the annual report to the OEC which aims at informing the decision-making process by the SCs, the MC and the LC/OEC at strategic and operational levels (AC/112-N(2021)0019 dated June 2021).

To increase responsiveness in crisis or war, NPS networks should consider migrating the reporting of their capabilities and capacities to NATO in a more dynamic format visible and usable by all NATO planning stakeholders. LOGFAS is the NATO information system providing decision support and information management capability that enables Commanders to efficiently plan and execute logistics support processes.

It enables collecting, storing, managing, analysing, presenting, and distributing comprehensive and relevant logistics information in a timely manner across the NATO enterprise. Despite the future evolution of NATO Logistics Information System into ESS, NPS networks should consider reporting through LOGFAS to accommodate a future migration to the future ESS.

P10. AI in Pipeline Operations

The use of AI is increasingly playing a vital role in the energy sector and more specifically in the management of operational activity of bulk petroleum pipeline infrastructure and related support facilities.

Presently, AI is used to optimise product flow rates, predict equipment maintenance needs, manage repair parts inventories, manage supply chain activities, and enhance safety through real-time monitoring and anomaly detection.

These systems leverage data from sensors, integrating predictive analytics to reduce downtime and minimise the risk of leaks or failures, optimising pumping plans based on latest customer demand, volume variations at entry points, and optimal time-periods for pump-stations energy consumption. In the future, AI will likely expand its influence through greater use of autonomous systems, advanced machine learning models for predictive maintenance, and AI-driven environmental compliance, helping to further enhance efficiency, safety, and sustainability in pipeline operations.

NATO pipelines entities will need to continue to leverage AI in all main management functions (operations, plans, maintenance, warehousing, security, and finance) to stay responsive to military requirements, and efficient and effective in daily operations.

P11. NPS Resource Models

NPS can benefit from a variety of resource models, and legal frameworks. Within certain resource models, funding sources may include a combination of NATO Joint Funding, NATO Common Funding, customer funding, national funding, or third-party investments.

Additionally, different NPS entity organisational designs may present a variety of efficiencies, effectiveness and strategic risks that each NPS Host Nation must evaluate. NPS nations may chose a national or a multinational structure. An NPS nation may select a government-owned – government-operated (GOGO), a government-owned/contractor operated (GOCO).

In addition, NPS Nations may decide to operate an NPS in an integrated system or independently but connected with another nation. These factors will drive a variety of legal frameworks and different modes of operations. Finally, the decisions to implement five-year plans and/or to establish an operating fund or working capital fund are considerations for NPS Nations to provide long-term stability and more predictability in operating a NATO pipeline and supporting the NATO FSC.

P12. NPS Critical Energy Infrastructure

All NATO nations have their respective national system that registers, resources, and protects their own designated critical energy infrastructure. Similarly, NATO has a methodology in determining and designating NATO critical energy infrastructure.

Given the current global security environment and the renewed emphasis on energy security, current and future national and multinational NPS operators should consider taking the necessary steps to ensure their NPS capability is designated as CEI in both national and NATO registers and thus benefits from the appropriate resources prioritization. Protecting energy infrastructure allows NATO pipelines to continue to support the bulk fuel supply chains necessary for the collective defence of the Alliance.